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Thursday, 20 March 2025

How Has Canada Ended Up in Trade Wars with China and the USA at the Same Time?

Here’s the chronology:

2015. The Justin Trudeau Liberals were elected with a plan to establish a free-trade agreement with China

2016.  Donald Trump was elected President of the USA and begins direct trade negotiations with Xi Jinping of China

2016-2017:  Plans for a Canada-China free-trade agreement are underway.

2018:  In January, Richard Donoghue, a lawyer working for Broadcom, becomes District Attorney for the Eastern District of New York

2018:  March 1, President Trump announces his intention to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian steel

2018:  In April, John Bolton becomes President Trump’s National Security Advisor

2018:  In October, Canada, USA and Mexico formally agree to the new NAFTA, the USMCA free-trade agreement which includes the “China clause” intended to block Canada from creating a free-trade agreement with China

2018:  December 1, John Bolton sets up a meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping which he sarcastically describes as his “contribution to world peace.”  On the same day, under Bolton’s direction the FBI instructs Canadian Border Secrurity and the RCMP to  arrest Meng Wanzou the CFO and daughter of the founder of Huawei, the largest supplier of telecommunications equipment in the world, based on a warrant issued my Richard Donoghue.

2018-2019:  The Extradition Act is clear that the decision to extradite or release Meng is up to the Minister of Justice, Jody Wilson Raybould, after she has reviewed all the circumstances and determined if the request is fair or not.   Wilson Raybould issues a statement saying she takes her extradition responsiblities seriously but before she can do more she is demoted out of Justice for refusing to interfere in the prosecution of the engineering firm SNC Lavalin.  Wilson Raybould subsequently resigns.  The Lavalin scandal creates confusion because by law the Minister of Justice is not supposed to interfere in a case like SNC Lavalin but, by law, the Minister is supposed to decide the extradition case.  This difference never seemed to make its way to the Canadian public.

2018:  December 10, after the Canadian government had broken every law in the books including denial of  habeas corpus and ignoring the Canadian Extradition Act in the process of arresting Meng, the Chinese government followed suit and arrested Canadians Michael Korvik and Michael Spavor without just cause.  The Chinese government also began to restrict imports of Canadian produce and stalled plans to establish a Covid-vaccine laboratory in Canada--essentially initiating the Canada-China trade war which continues today.  Rather than releasing Meng, whom we now know was being held without justifiable cause, and arranging the release of the "two Michaels," the Canadian government in obedience and acquiescence to US policy continued to escalate tensions with China.

2020:  Weaponizing Human Rights, 24 hours before leaving office, Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo declared that China was committing genocide against the Uyghur population of Xinjiang. At least three reports were published accusing China of genocide and were extensively quoted in the press.  The newly appointed US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken repeated Pompeo's claim of a genocide but made no official declaration.  In the UN's Assessment of human rights concerns in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, People’s Republic of China published in August, 2022, the word "genocide" never appears.

2021:  January 21, the Canadian House of Commons passed a non-binding resolution proposed by Erin O'Toole that China was perpetrating a genocide against its Muslim population.

2021:  December 23,  the US Congress passes the Forced Labour Act which requires Border Security to reject all imports from China that might be the result of forced labour unless there is clear and convincing evidence to the contrary.  In keeping with the recently negotiated USMCA free trade agreement, Canada is required to do the same thereby further escalating a trade war with China.

2024:  October 1, Canada imposed a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles, again to align itself with US policy, and once again escalating a trade war with China.

2025:  January 20, Donald Trump is inaugurated as US President and announces a 25% tariff on Canadian imports, effectively reneging on the USMCA.  Nonetheless Canada continues to impose its 100% tariff on Chinese vehicles. 

2025:  China retaliates with 100% tariffs on Canadian canola, seafood and pork.  

Just a thought:  maybe we shouldn't have arrested Meng in the first place.


   

In the Midst of Canada's Existential Crisis, Alberta Premier, Danielle Smith, Escalates Hostilities with Canada's Federal Government.

 This is cut and paste from Edmonton Journal.


Smith targets ‘unconstitutional federal overreach' with new Alberta legislation

“These amendments we're introducing today would include denying federal workers access to our facilities and the information they contain."

Tuesday, 18 March 2025

Premier Danielle Smith defends Florida speaking trip as anti-tariff effort

 Cut and paste from Calgary Herald.  BTW, Prager U is not a university.  It is a propaganda tool of right -wing American conservatives.  Largely financed by the KOCH brothers who own the American refinery that processes most of Alberta's oil.  See Foreign Interference in Canadian Elections.

·4 min read

Alberta’s premier says her upcoming speaking appearance with conservative media personality Ben Shapiro is a continuation of the necessary “quiet diplomacy” she’s employed to gain the attention of U.S. President Donald Trump amid a heated trade war.

Danielle Smith has faced calls to cancel her advertised attendance at the March 27 fundraiser for Florida-based PragerU.

Shapiro is the outspoken co-founder of conservative media company The Daily Wire and former editor-in-chief of Breitbart News. He’s drawn criticism for past homophobic remarks and more recent posts supporting Canada becoming the 51st American state.

On her call-in radio show Saturday, Smith said it’s important she speak with those who have the president’s attention.

“You talk to the influencers. That’s the key insight that people should see,” Smith said.

“I can yell from the rooftops here all that I want, but it’s far more influential for someone close to the president, that he respects, making the same case for us.”

Tickets for the “East Coast Gala” are being sold for US$1,500.

Lori Williams, a political science professor at Mount Royal University, says Smith’s upcoming appearance with Shapiro differs from her past engagements with figures like Tucker Carlson or Jordan Peterson for a couple of reasons.

One distinction, Williams said, is that the event where Smith will share the stage with Shapiro is a fundraiser in support of PragerU.

Williams also highlighted Shapiro’s recent social media posts suggesting Canada should become the 51st U.S. state, noting that Smith’s participation at the conference places her alongside someone who appears to disrespect Canadian sovereignty at a politically sensitive time.

“When we take Canada, you will be expelled to Panama to work the canal,” Shapiro posted on X in response to a post made by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in January.

Sharing the stage with Shapiro is “something that’s not going to sit well with most Canadians,” Williams said. “Even in her base, I think there are a lot of patriotic Canadians who aren’t going to particularly like the idea of her appearing to take too lightly … disrespect for Canada’s sovereignty.”

As for Smith’s claim that Shapiro has influence with Donald Trump, Williams is skeptical.

“I don’t know that that particular argument works very well,” she said. “Even though Shapiro seems to be embracing Trump’s position on the 51st state rhetoric … he has spoken out against the tariffs on Canada. So I have no idea if Donald Trump is listening to anybody.”

Williams noted it’s become “very difficult” and “exceedingly unpredictable” to know who Trump listens to and communicates with.

“(Trump’s) advisors say something isn’t going to happen and it does, or they say something is going to happen and it (doesn’t),” Williams said.

Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi last week urged Smith to cancel the appearance, saying it would be “despicable” for her to speak at the Florida event.

“These are not the kind of people that Albertans want her associating with,” Nenshi told reporters.

Smith reiterates support of ‘proportionate’ approach to tariffs

Smith said it’s important she and other opponents of tariffs address the likes of Shapiro — who has millions of followers on social media — and PragerU, who have spoken out against tariffs imposed by Trump.

“They think that tariffing Canada is dumb. They were very open about that and I want to be able to make sure that entire audience of influencers has all of my talking points so they can be making them every single place that they can so we can get to the finish line, which is tariff-free relationship on every product,” Smith said.

Asked why she has not offered a more aggressive response to U.S. tariffs, as Ontario Premier Doug Ford has, Smith reiterated her support of a measured, “proportionate” approach.

Ford threatened last week to slap an added 25 per cent charge on Ontario’s electricity exports to three northern U.S. states. Trump responded by declaring he’d double steel and aluminum duties on Canada, leading Ford to drop his proposed surcharge.

Trump went ahead Wednesday with an additional 25 per cent import tariff on all steel and aluminum imports into the U.S., including from Canada.

Trump placed 25 per cent tariffs on some products coming from Canada and Mexico in early March — and 10 per cent on energy — while pausing others for 30 days.

Smith has repeatedly resisted calls — including from Ford — to consider Alberta’s energy exports as a retaliatory bargaining chip in the ongoing trade dispute.

“If you come to a gun fight with a knife, you really are going to be at the bad end of that,” she said.

“The Americans have more levers to cause harm in an energy war, particularly to Ontario and Quebec. They may not realize that I’m defending them but I absolutely am. You just don’t mess with energy.”

— With files from The Canadian Press

Thursday, 13 March 2025

Why Are We Canadians Causing a Trade War with China at this Moment

Cut and paste from CBC 

Sask. premier warns that Chinese tariffs on canola would be ruinous

Premier Scott Moe also took aim at 25 per cent U.S. steel tariffs

Image | Scott Moe - SARM 2025

Caption: Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe warned of the threat posed by Chinese counter tariffs on canola. The 100 per cent tariff is set to kick in March 20, 2025. (Chanss Lagaden/CBC News)

Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe lashed out at American and Chinese tariffs on Wednesday, saying they will have a devastating impact on Saskatchewan workers.
"Make no mistake — a 100 per cent tariff on Chinese canola and meal exports, alongside the challenge that we're seeing in the United States with the on and off again tariffs on various products, will decimate the canola industry in Saskatchewan," Moe said at the annual Saskatchewan Association of Rural Municipalities (SARM) conference in Saskatoon on Wednesday.
"Immediately. In a matter of a number of weeks, not months."
China has announced that it will impose 100 per cent retaliatory tariffs targeting canola, as well as other Canadian goods like seafood and pork.
The decision comes in response to Canada's 100 per cent tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles and a 25 per cent levy on Chinese aluminum and steel products imposed on Oct. 1.
The Chinese tariffs are scheduled to kick in on March 20, just a day after the Saskatchewan budget is set to be introduced in the provincial legislature.
"I'm not sure you're going to hear the budget speak specifically to this, but you're gonna hear the Saskatchewan government speak specifically to this," Moe said.
The premier said no one wants to buy Chinese electric vehicles in Canada, and moving to protect Canadian and American car industries is directly harming agriculturally-based provinces like Saskatchewan.
Moe's ire was not just focused on the incoming Canola tariffs. On Wednesday morning, 25 per cent tariffs on all imports of steel and aluminum to the United States officially came into force.
In response, the Canadian government announced a new set of 25 per cent tariffs on $29.8 billion worth of American imports. They include $12.6 billion worth of steel products, $3 billion worth of aluminum products and $14.2 billion worth of other goods. They are ti go into effect at 12:01 a.m. EDT on Thursday.
Those new tariffs are on top of the federal government's first retaliatory tariffs announced earlier this month, which applied to $30 billion worth of American goods and are to be increased to $155 billion at the end of March. The federal government said they will remain in place until all American tariffs are lifted.
Moe confirmed that Saskatchewan's retaliatory measures announced last week will also remain in place. They include blocking the Saskatchewan Liquor and Gaming Authority (SLGA) from buying and distributing U.S.-made alcohol, and pausing future government capital projects to assess how American contractors and suppliers could be minimized.
"Things are changing literally by the hour," Moe said. "And we've seen that over the course of the last number of weeks. So a calm hand is necessary."

Image | Saskatchewan NDP Shadow Minister for Economy and Jobs Aleana Young

Caption: Saskatchewan NDP economy and jobs critic Aleana Young says the Sask. Party hasn't done enough to stand up for steel workers. (Krik Fraser)

Aleana Young, the Saskatchewan NDP's economy and jobs critic, said at a separate news conference in Regina on Wednesday that the government should prioritize Canadian steel manufacturers.
"Stop using steel from outside of Canada, stop using cheap Chinese steel, stop using U.S. companies when it comes to building projects here in Saskatchewan," Young said.
More than half of Saskatchewan's exports go to the United States, totalling about $26.7 billion in 2024. About three quarters of those were from one of four products: crude oil, potash, canola oil and uranium.
According to Statistics Canada, in 2024 Saskatchewan exported $387 million worth of iron and steel products and $26 million worth of aluminum to the United States.
Regina is home to one of 13 steel plants in Canada. It's run by Ervaz plc, a steel manufacturing and mining company based in the United Kingdom.
According to United Steelworkers Local 5890 President Mike Day, about 30 per cent of the steel produced at the facility is shipped to a sister plant in the U.S.
"Right now everything is up in the air and we don't know what the next move is," said Patrick Veinot, a staff representative for United Steelworkers. "It's important that we get together and we discuss it. All parties, all stakeholders. That includes finance, that includes business, that includes the unions, you know, as organized labour.
"Everybody needs to sit at a table and discuss this."

Tuesday, 11 March 2025

Canada is caught in a ‘double trade war’ — and one premier is urging Ottawa to drop its fight against China

Cut and paste from  the Toronto Star

Canada is caught in a ‘double trade war’ — and one premier is urging Ottawa to drop its fight against China

On top of threatened U.S. tariffs, China has brought down another hammer on many Canadian farm and seafood exports.

Updated 
4 min read
CP NewsAlert: B.C. to toll U.S. trucks travelling to Alaska through province

B.C. Premier David Eby speaks to reporters from his office following the throne speech at the legislature in Victoria on Feb. 18, 2025.


OTTAWA — On top of threatened U.S. tariffs, China has brought down another hammer on many Canadian farm and seafood exports, hitting them with a “double trade war” that industry leaders say will slam Canadian producers.

In response, B.C. Premier David Eby called on Ottawa to drop its tariff fight against China, saying Canada got nothing out of trying to align trade policy with the United States last fall ahead of President Donald Trump’s election.

Eby, who stepped up measures against the United States along with Ontario Premier Doug Ford on Monday, said the government of Canada should offer a concession in the trade dispute it has with China.

“The president has been completely indifferent to our policy towards China, and in fact, he doesn’t seem to have any designs on treating Canada better than China.” In fact, he said, Trump is “coming after Canada far more aggressively than he is the government of China.

I think it will be necessary for the federal government to have a look at tariff policy with respect to trading partners around the world, understanding that we don’t want to get crushed between the two biggest economies in the world — the American and the Chinese economies — and ensuring we’re diversifying around the world.”In October, Canada matched U.S. tariffs against Chinese imports, imposing 100 per cent tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, and 25 per cent tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum imports. When the tariffs on China were announced at a cabinet retreat, the Trudeau government made clear it was moving in lockstep with the Americans against Chinese “overcapacity.”

Beijing responded several months later, announcing on Saturday that it will levy a 100 per cent tariff on more than $1 billion worth of Canadian canola oil, meal and pea imports, and a 25 per cent duty on $1.6 billion worth of Canadian aquatic products and pork.

We can’t survive a double trade war with our two largest trading partners,” said Kyle Larkin, head of the Grain Growers of Canada, which represents about 70,000 grain farmers. 

The Chinese tariffs open a new front that will put even more pressure on the sector at a time when U.S. tariff threats, though temporarily paused, have rattled markets and led to a drop in commodity prices, Larkin said in an interview.

Silo operators are already starting to reject grain farmers trying to drop off their canola, he said. That has a domino effect on the cash flow of farmers who operate with “thin margins,” and sell grain in the fall and spring to earn cash to buy seed, fertilizer and pesticides for the upcoming growing season.

While they want Ottawa to engage with China to resolve the dispute, Larkin said the federal government — which offered $1 billion in new credit financing on Friday through Farm Credit Canada — will also have to look at higher compensation and supports for farmers.

“We’re already seeing about 1,000 to 1,500 family farms lost every year. So, you know, it’s kind of a precipitous situation that we find ourselves in right now,” said Larkin.

Michael Harvey, executive director of the Canadian Agri-Food Trade Alliance, said the organization had warned the Canadian government last year that it risked Chinese retaliation because Ottawa did not go through the kind of investigation that European countries undertook in line with World Trade Organization processes. 

The alliance, which represents Canadian ranchers, producers, and food processors that export products, is now calling on Ottawa to engage with China to persuade it to drop the looming tariffs

The incoming prime minister, Mark Carney, talked tough on tariffs and Trump in his victory speech after winning the Liberal leadership.

During his campaign he said he would impose “dollar-for-dollar” tariffs on the U.S. He did not repeat that threat Sunday night, but said “the Canadian government is rightly retaliating with our own tariffs that will have maximum impact in the US and minimum impact here in Canada.

“My government will keep our tariffs on until the Americans show us respect, and make credible, reliable commitments to free and fair trade. In the meantime, we will ensure that all proceeds from our tariffs will be used to protect our workers,” he said.

On Monday, the prime minister-designate spoke with Ford about the tariff fight.

Ford told Bloomberg TV that Carney is “right in line with what I believe in” when it comes to dealing with Trump.

Despite the U.S. tariffs being temporarily paused until April 2, provinces are acting.

Ontario slapped a promised 25 per cent export tariff on electricity shipped to the U.S. on Monday, and B.C. removed all American liquor from provincially run stores, not just those from “red” states where Republicans are in power. 

Eby is now preparing legislation to allow B.C. to levy tariffs on American cars travelling through Canada en route to Alaska, and has recommended similar tariffs on American thermal coal shipments that transit through Canada to reach shipping routes to Asian markets. 

Former prime minister Jean Chrétien told Liberals Sunday night that governments of all stripes in Canada should consider responding to U.S. tariffs with export tariffs on Canadian oil, gas, potash, steel, aluminum and electricity shipped to the U.S.

Ford said Alberta Premier Danielle Smith should slap export tariffs on her province’s oil exports south of the border, like he did with electricity.

“You want to talk about a trump card that will instantly change the game,” said Ford. “The Americans, all of a sudden their gas prices go up 90 (cents) to a dollar a gallon, they will lose their minds.” He urged Smith not to be shy about it as the trade war continues. “We need to at least put that in the window.”

Smith adamantly rejected that notion again Monday.

In a news conference in Beijing earlier Monday, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said China’s move is justified because Canada disregarded its arguments against EVs.

“Canada has insisted on taking discriminatory restrictive measures on some Chinese imports. This seriously violates WTO rules, disrupts normal trade order, and gravely harms China’s lawful rights and interests. The countermeasures China has taken are fully necessary, justified, reasonable and lawful.”

Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly is urging New Canadian Liberal party leader Mark Carney to take a strong stance on tariffs imposed by the United States under the Trump administration. (AP Video / March 10, 2025)

With files from Robert Benzie

Tonda MacCharles

Tonda MacCharles is Ottawa Bu

Tuesday, 4 March 2025

How to Resist the Dismantling of Canada

 The Clarity Act

After the very close call in the second referendum on Quebec sovereignty, the Liberal government of Jean Chrétien passed the “Clarity Act.”  The title is almost a joke since it should really be called the “oh-no-you-don’t act” and doesn’t offer much clarity.  The Act specifies that if any province wishes to separate from Canada, the Federal House of Commons  must accept the question and will determine what constitutes a majority without clarifying the definition of a “clear question” or “a majority.”  The Act also specifies that provincial secession would require an amendment to the Canadian constitution and must respect the rights of the provinces, territories, First Nations and minorities.

In the present context, we should be grateful.  According to recent polling, the majority of Quebecers (58%) are proud to be Canadian.  


Wexit and Western Separtism

The Clarity Act notwithstanding, the greatest internal  existential threat to Canada is western disenchantment.  Danielle Smith leader of the United Conservative Party, Premier of Alberta, and former leader of the Wildrose Party,  as I have repeated, is currently the weakest link and greatest threat to Canada’s survival as a country. Speaking at a gathering for an recent iteration of the Wildrose Party, (the Wildrose Independence of Alberta Party) in 2020, interim leader Paul Hinman announced:  

I have great faith in Albertans that when that referendum comes they’ll make the right choice for a sovereign nation, [ . . .] We’ll be a beacon of freedom and prosperity around the world and I think Alberta will overwhelmingly by that point be voting 60, 70, 75 per cent saying, ‘You know what we need to be our own nation.

Canada as a 51st US State

 Donald Trump’s musings on Canada becoming a 51st state began as a bad joke but with repetition have devolved into a greater insult and threat.  Recently he suggested that “Canada would be a good candidate to become the 51st state,”  suggesting we are in competition with our friends in the Common Wealth of Puerto Rico.  Trump’s posturing is, of course, absurd—Canada is the "bigger" country in every sense of the word.     Nonetheless we are being threatened and bullied.  We need to consider how to respond and anticipate what will come next.

How to respond to a bully

Elon Musk, who endured his fair share of bullying, and is now Trump's official bully,  offers this advice on how to respond to a bully:  

I realized by then that if someone bullied me, I could punch them very hard in the nose, and then they wouldn’t bully me again. They might beat the shit out of me, but if I had punched them hard in the nose, they wouldn’t come after me again.   

Elon Musk by Walter Isaacson.    https://a.co/9TzEH4e

Canada cannot win a trade war with the USA.  Our only response is to inflict as much damage as possible on the USA and prepare to endure and survive the pain which the USA will inflict upon us.

A Chain is only as strong as. . .

The adage is well known, even Biblical, that we are strong when we stand together but weak when we stand alone.  Trump's buffoonery about Canada becoming the 51st state is a ploy.  His claim that the USA doesn't need Canadian oil, lumber, gas and cars is the beginning of negotiations.  As the economic effects of Trump's tariffs and the trade war begin to take effect in Canada, there will be a more reasonable offer to Alberta--full state status, two senators like all other states, a number of seats in the Congress based on population, and, of course, promise of a governorship for Danielle Smith if not a position in Congress or the Senate.  Most Alberta oil already flows south, but if Alberta becomes a US state, oil flowing east or west will be heavily taxed.   The next target for US annexation will be British Columbia, not just because it is a prized Pacific province but because it is a strong link between China and Canada which the USA will want to sever once and for all.  In Trump's twisted imagination, once Albert and BC have succumbed, the rest of the provinces and territories will line up begging for access to his greater America on whatever degrading terms he chooses to impose.


Was It a job interview?

When Canadian Premiers came out of their half-hour meeting at the White House, they looked ashen and shaken.  Their repeated insistence that it was a "high level meeting" told me that one thing was certain: it wasn't a high level meeting.  Later, when I learned that one of the "high level" people they met with was in charge of hiring White House staff, I didn't know whether to laugh or cry.

The Best defence . . .

Step one in resisting the dismantling of Canada is to address Western disenchantment:  more pipelines? maybe. Reviewing the equalization payment system in which Alberta gives and Quebec receives? Probably.  A high-speed train so we can finally connect and get to know each other? Definitely. It doesn't make sense that we are a single country so divided by geography.  

End the mythologizing of China

Then there's China.  Since December 1, 2018, we Canadians have been mythologizing China as a dangerous, evil empire trying to influence our elections and  threaten our sovereignty.  Well, guess what, they are not the most dangerous empire threatening our sovereignty at the moment.  China remains our second largest trading partner and our only real leverage in a trade-war with the USA.  "China" remains a word that Canadian politicians cannot utter in light of six years of a brainwashing level of China-bashing.  However, when Canadian politicians of every stripe say "diversify trade" that is code for "China."  And beyond China is BRIC+ (Brazil, Russia, India, China, plus 19 other countries) ; in other words, 55% of the population of the world.  And yes we will need the Chinese to help us build high-speed rail across Canada, just as we needed the Chinese to build the original railway across Canada in the 1870s.  Only this time we will need to treat the Chinese with a lot more respect, humanity and justice.


Addendum

One Premier—David Eby—has dared to say:



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